Where does a Czech startup get its money?
LinkedIn, 30 Sep 2026 (activity timestamp 23:53 CEST).
Status labels sit next to the section they apply to. Section A and B figures: CONFIRMED on the dataset (reproducible from the published CSV). Per-round leads: SINGLE-SOURCE unless two sources are named. Section C: CONFIRMED on the named rounds only. Section D and E: labels below.
Core claim
Text as posted. Corrections are in the log at the bottom, not in this text.
Where does a Czech startup get its money? Until seed, here. After seed, mostly not. And that is changing... slowly I went through 96 funding rounds of 41 Czech-founded startups (a curated set, not all of them), 2016 to today, and wrote down who led each one where it was named. Czech investors lead the small rounds: below 4 million euro, 39 of 45. From 4 million up, 34 of 41 led rounds came from abroad. Above 15 million, all 16. The part that moves: the Czech-led round. Median about 1 million euro up to 2022, about 2,4 million since. The first Czech venture fund to lead above 4 million alone came in 2024 (Kaya, Better Stack), the first above 10 in 2026 (Rockaway, ValkaAI). Kaya led a year and a half before its new fund first closed, Rockaway nine months after closing its second. The part people do not see: Czech venture funds also LEAD big rounds, but ABROAD. Inven Capital led 50 million dollars into Germany's Forto in 2020, Springtide 27 million dollars into the Israeli-founded Source Defense in 2022. Built for that (surprisinglyfor many?), by mandate. What I think is happening (and I can be wrong): Czech venture is one fund generation behind the rounds its own startups raise, and the gap closes with bigger Czech-led rounds, there is no sentiment in it. What would make me wrong? If the Czech-led median, 2023 to 2027 pooled, falling back under 1,5 million by end of 2027, or no third Czech venture fund, besides Kaya and Rockaway, leading alone above 4 million into a Czech startup by then. I will redraw the chart either way.
Panels
Text description of this panel
Dot plot, one dot per funding round, 2016 to 2026, round size in million euro on a log scale. 92 rounds of 41 Czech-founded startups are drawn; 4 with undisclosed size are not. Red dots: 42 rounds led or co-led by a Czech investor. Median of these: 1.0 million euro up to 2022, 2.4 million from 2023 to 2026. A dashed red trend line rises 21 percent a year (R squared 0.25). Hollow red: 4 rounds led by a Czech bank, operator or debt fund, not in the median. Dark grey: led from abroad. Light grey: no lead named. Labelled: Better Stack 2024, led by Kaya; ValkaAI 2026, led by Rockaway. Curated set, not the full population. Sources in the footer. strt.it/evidence
Text description of this panel
Grid of 16 funding rounds of five Czech-founded startups, one row per company, one column per stage, who led each round. Productboard: seed 1.3 million USD, Index with Credo; A 8 million, Kleiner Perkins; B 45 million, Sequoia; C 72 million, Tiger Global; D 125 million, Dragoneer and Tiger. Rossum: pre-seed 0.9 million euro, Miton and StartupYard; seed 3.1 million euro, LocalGlobe; A 100 million USD, General Catalyst. Mews: A 6 million euro, Notion Capital; B 33 million USD, Battery; C 185 million, Kinnevik and Goldman Sachs; D 110 million, Kinnevik. Resistant AI: seed 2.75 million USD, Index with Credo; A 16.6 million, GV. Deepnote: seed 3.8 million USD, Index, Accel, YC; A 20 million, Index and Accel. Czech investors led or co-led 3 of 16 rounds, 3 of 5 pre-seed and seed rounds, 0 of 11 from Series A on. Five well-known companies chosen by name, not a sample. strt.it/evidence
Definitions
"Czech-led" = led or co-led by a Czech investor. A co-lead with a foreign fund counts as Czech-led everywhere on this page (owner decision, 30 Sep 2026). "Led round" = a round whose lead is named; 7 of 96 have no lead named. "Hollow four" = Czech-led rounds led by a bank, an operator or a debt fund: Roger 2020 (Komercni banka, 6.0), Lemonero 2022 (Komercni banka, 6.0, equity and debt mixed), Liftago 2018 (Livesport Invest, 4.0, includes buyouts), ThreatMark 2023 (Orbit Capital, 4.6; Orbit runs venture-debt funds, the 2023 instrument is not established). They count in the lead-origin split and are excluded from the median and the trend.
Key numbers A. Who leads, by round size
CONFIRMED on the dataset
Reproducible from the published CSV and verify_q20.py by anyone. This is reproducibility, not a second-source check of each round.
| Round size (EUR) | Led rounds | Czech-led | Led from abroad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below 4m | 45 | 39 | 6 |
| 4m or more | 41 | 7 | 34 |
| of which above 4.0m strictly | 40 | 6 | 34 |
| 15m or more | 16 | 0 | 16 (none exactly 15.0) |
39 of 45 below 4m; 34 of 41 led rounds at 4m or more came from abroad; 16 of 16 at 15m or more.
The seven Czech-led rounds at 4m or more: Liftago 2018 (4.0, Livesport Invest), ThreatMark 2023 (4.6, Orbit Capital), Neuron Soundware 2019 (5.75, Inven Capital with Lead Ventures, Budapest, co-lead), Roger 2020 (6.0, Komercni banka), Lemonero 2022 (6.0, Komercni banka), Better Stack 2024 (9.2, Kaya), ValkaAI 2026 (12.0, Rockaway). Five of the seven are not venture-fund sole leads; the post's claim "the first Czech venture fund to lead above 4 million alone" depends on that (in this set: Better Stack 2024 and ValkaAI 2026).
Totals: 96 rounds, 41 companies, 92 with disclosed amount, 7 without a named lead (Spendee 2017, Kardi AI 2022, 2023 and 2025, Carebot 2024, Choice 2021, Tatum 2021), 4 undisclosed amounts (Tatum 2021, Woltair 2021 and 2024, ThreatMark 2017). The 45 + 41 = 86 led rounds with amount; 92 - 86 = 6 rounds with an amount and no named lead. That is why 96 does not equal 86.
DEPO Ventures, the fund where the author is a venture partner, is an investor in 2 of the 41 companies (Tatum, Kardi AI) and is not named as lead in any round. DEPO is a named participant in four rounds of those two companies in this table (Tatum 2021; Kardi AI 2022, 2023, 2025).
Key numbers B. The Czech-led round over time
CONFIRMED on the dataset
n 42 = all Czech-led rounds with an amount, minus the hollow four. Median 1.0 million EUR for 2016 to 2022 (n 32); 2.4 million EUR for 2023 to 2026 (n 10). The post says "about 1" and "about 2,4".
Trend: least squares on log size against year, +21.4 percent a year, R squared 0.25, n 42. Formula: growth = exp(slope) - 1.
The trend is definition dependent. Sensitivity:
| Set | n | Trend a year | R squared |
|---|---|---|---|
| Posted set (co-leads in, hollow four out) | 42 | +21.4% | 0.25 |
| Without Neuron Soundware 2019 | 41 | +23.2% | 0.31 |
| Without the Index + Credo co-leads (Productboard 2016, Resistant AI 2020) and Neuron | 39 | +26.9% | 0.37 |
| All Czech-led rounds incl. hollow four | 46 | +20.0% | 0.20 |
Medians are stable across these: 1.0 / 2.4 posted; 1.1 / 2.5 all Czech-led; 0.97 / 2.3 if rounds with no lead named are added. Neuron Soundware has more than one round in the CSV; only the 2019 co-lead is dropped in row 2.
Key numbers C. Five journeys
CONFIRMED on the named rounds only; five companies chosen by name, survivors only, not a sample
Productboard, Rossum, Mews, Resistant AI, Deepnote: 16 rounds, Czech-led or co-led 3 (Productboard seed 2016 Index with Credo, Rossum pre-seed 2019 Miton, Resistant AI seed 2020 Index with Credo), 3 of 5 pre-seed and seed rounds, 0 of 11 from Series A on. Outside the five, 7 of 30 led rounds of 4m or more are Czech-led (23 abroad). 26 companies in the set have a round of about 5m or more. Panel C prints USD cells as announced; the CSV holds EUR at 0.92 per USD.
Key numbers D. Kaya and Rockaway (dated facts)
Status by row: Kaya IV CONFIRMED; Better Stack existence and amount CONFIRMED, "led" SINGLE-SOURCE; Kaya V SINGLE-SOURCE (Vestbee); Rockaway II CONFIRMED; ValkaAI CONFIRMED
No causal claim. The post's sentence "Kaya led a year and a half before its new fund first closed, Rockaway nine months after closing its second" is date arithmetic on these rows.
| Event | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Kaya IV closed, USD 80m (about EUR 72m) | 31 Mar 2021 | Global Private Capital |
| Better Stack USD 10m (EUR 9.2m), "provided by existing backer KAYA", Prague | 22 Jan 2024 | tech.eu; eu-startups (EUR 9.2m); TechCrunch note for "led" |
| Kaya Fund V launched, target EUR 80m | Jun 2024 | Vestbee |
| Kaya Fund V first close EUR 70m | 25 Jun 2025 | Vestbee |
| Rockaway Ventures II closed, EUR 55m (Fund I size undisclosed) | 16 May 2025 | tech.eu |
| ValkaAI EUR 12m led by Rockaway | 24 Feb 2026 | Vestbee |
22 Jan 2024 to 25 Jun 2025 is 17 months ("a year and a half" is rounded; print 17 months). 16 May 2025 to 24 Feb 2026 is 9 months. Better Stack (Jan 2024) was funded from Kaya IV, before the new fund, from a fund not smaller than the new one (EUR 72m against 70m first close). tech.eu says "provided"; TechCrunch notes a tranche "led by Kaya". "First Czech venture fund to lead above 4 million alone" is a statement about this dataset (no earlier sole venture-fund lead of 4m or more in the 96 rounds); in this set.
Key numbers E. Cases abroad
SINGLE-SOURCE Inven Capital led USD 50m into Forto (Germany), 18 Nov 2020, Unquote. Both amounts in this section are USD; the post says "dollars".
CONFIRMED Springtide led USD 27m Series B into Source Defense, 26 Apr 2022 (SiliconAngle) and 27 Apr 2022 (cc.cz). Israeli-founded per the post; headquarters not established by the author.
Note: Taranis (USD 40m Series D, Sep 2022, Inven led, thesaasnews) is a third case not used in the post.
Full data table
SINGLE-SOURCE (press announcement per round; per-round links to be added)
Sizes as announced; some include convertibles, debt or buyouts (see note column). EUR at 25 CZK and 0.92 per USD. 4 amounts undisclosed, 92 drawn on the panel. Download: czech_rounds_2016_2026_v2.csv (sha256 da81f4005b71e5c35c020425686e1ae702fd2e55104fd5e0e145cd2ce64abf22). Script: verify_q20.py.
| Productboard | 2016 | seed | 1.2 | 1 to 4m | Czech lead or co-lead | Index + Credo | |
| Productboard | 2018 | A | 7.4 | 4 to 15m | led from abroad | Kleiner Perkins | |
| Productboard | 2020 | B | 41.4 | 40m and up | led from abroad | Sequoia | |
| Productboard | 2021 | C | 66.2 | 40m and up | led from abroad | Tiger Global | |
| Productboard | 2022 | D | 115.0 | 40m and up | led from abroad | Dragoneer, Tiger | |
| Rossum | 2019 | pre-seed | 0.9 | under 1m | Czech lead or co-lead | Miton | |
| Rossum | 2019 | seed | 3.1 | 1 to 4m | led from abroad | LocalGlobe | |
| Rossum | 2021 | A | 92.0 | 40m and up | led from abroad | General Catalyst | |
| Mews | 2018 | A | 6.0 | 4 to 15m | led from abroad | Notion Capital | |
| Mews | 2019 | B | 30.4 | 15 to 40m | led from abroad | Battery | |
| Mews | 2022 | C | 170.2 | 40m and up | led from abroad | Kinnevik, Goldman | |
| Mews | 2024 | D | 101.2 | 40m and up | led from abroad | Kinnevik | |
| Resistant AI | 2020 | seed | 2.5 | 1 to 4m | Czech lead or co-lead | Index + Credo | |
| Resistant AI | 2021 | A | 15.3 | 15 to 40m | led from abroad | GV | |
| Deepnote | 2020 | seed | 3.5 | 1 to 4m | led from abroad | Index, Accel, YC | |
| Deepnote | 2022 | A | 18.4 | 15 to 40m | led from abroad | Index, Accel | |
| Twisto | 2017 | A | 5.0 | 4 to 15m | led from abroad | ING (Amsterdam) | |
| Twisto | 2019 | B | 14.0 | 4 to 15m | led from abroad | Finch, Velocity (Amsterdam) | |
| Twisto | 2021 | B2 | 9.8 | 4 to 15m | led from abroad | Zip (Sydney) | equity part only |
| Ataccama | 2022 | growth | 138.0 | 40m and up | led from abroad | Bain Capital Tech Opp. | first outside capital |
| Manta | 2018 | seed | 1.0 | 1 to 4m | Czech lead or co-lead | Credo + Senovo | no single lead; Credo co-invested; amount 'lower tens of m CZK' |
| Manta | 2020 | A | 12.0 | 4 to 15m | led from abroad | Bessemer | |
| Manta | 2022 | B | 32.2 | 15 to 40m | led from abroad | Forestay (Geneva) | |
| Tatum | 2021 | seed | undisclosed | no lead named | 3VC, DEPO, Tensor | no lead named; DEPO is the owner's fund | |
| Tatum | 2022 | A | 38.2 | 15 to 40m | led from abroad | Evolution Equity (New York) | |
| Spendee | 2017 | angel | 0.45 | under 1m | no lead named | Slovak angel family | |
| Liftago | 2017 | unnamed | 1.5 | 1 to 4m | Czech lead or co-lead | INCOMMING Ventures | 'tens of millions CZK' |
| Liftago | 2018 | unnamed | 4.0 | 4 to 15m | Czech lead or co-lead | Livesport Invest | 100m CZK incl. buyouts; 84m primary |
| Daytrip | 2017 | convertible | 0.6 | under 1m | Czech lead or co-lead | Select Ventures, J&T Ventures | |
| Daytrip | 2020 | A tranche | 1.0 | 1 to 4m | Czech lead or co-lead | Nation 1, J&T Ventures | |
| Daytrip | 2021 | A follow-on | 0.6 | under 1m | Czech lead or co-lead | Pale Fire Capital | |
| Daytrip | 2022 | A | 6.1 | 4 to 15m | led from abroad | Euroventures (Budapest) | |
| Daytrip | 2024 | B | 9.2 | 4 to 15m | led from abroad | Taiwania (Taipei) | |
| SpaceKnow | 2017 | A | 3.7 | 1 to 4m | led from abroad | BlueYard (Berlin) | |
| SpaceKnow | 2018 | B | 3.7 | 1 to 4m | led from abroad | OTB Ventures (Warsaw) | |
| Spaceflow | 2018 | incubator | 0.4 | under 1m | Czech lead or co-lead | UP21 | |
| Spaceflow | 2019 | seed | 1.6 | 1 to 4m | Czech lead or co-lead | Credo Ventures | |
| Spaceflow | 2022 | A | 8.0 | 4 to 15m | led from abroad | Hydda Group (Stockholm) | |
| Woltair | 2019 | unnamed | 0.8 | under 1m | Czech lead or co-lead | Enern, Presto | |
| Woltair | 2020 | unnamed | 3.0 | 1 to 4m | Czech lead or co-lead | Enern, Inven Capital | |
| Woltair | 2021 | unnamed | undisclosed | led from abroad | Movens Capital (Warsaw) | amount undisclosed | |
| Woltair | 2022 | A | 16.3 | 15 to 40m | led from abroad | ArcTern (Toronto) | |
| Woltair | 2023 | A ext | 20.5 | 15 to 40m | led from abroad | Westly, Fifth Wall | |
| Woltair | 2024 | B | undisclosed | led from abroad | Fifth Wall | 'lower hundreds of m CZK' | |
| ThreatMark | 2017 | first VC | undisclosed | Czech lead or co-lead | Springtide, Rockaway | undisclosed | |
| ThreatMark | 2021 | unnamed | 2.8 | 1 to 4m | Czech lead or co-lead | Springtide | |
| ThreatMark | 2023 | unnamed | 4.6 | 4 to 15m | Czech lead or co-lead | Orbit Capital | |
| ThreatMark | 2025 | unnamed | 13.8 | 4 to 15m | led from abroad | Octopus, Riverside (London, NY) | equity 15m USD of 23m |
| Whalebone | 2019 | seed | 0.6 | under 1m | Czech lead or co-lead | Fazole Ventures | |
| Whalebone | 2021 | A | 2.6 | 1 to 4m | led from abroad | Day One Capital (Budapest) | |
| Whalebone | 2025 | B | 13.4 | 4 to 15m | led from abroad | Unbound (London) | |
| Wultra | 2021 | unnamed | 1.0 | 1 to 4m | Czech lead or co-lead | J&T Ventures | 'tens of millions CZK' |
| Wultra | 2025 | seed+ | 3.0 | 1 to 4m | Czech lead or co-lead | Tensor Ventures | |
| Wultra | 2026 | A | 6.8 | 4 to 15m | led from abroad | Seventure (Paris) | |
| Neuron Soundware | 2017 | seed | 0.6 | under 1m | Czech lead or co-lead | J&T Ventures | |
| Neuron Soundware | 2019 | unnamed | 5.75 | 4 to 15m | Czech lead or co-lead | Inven Capital + Lead Ventures | CZ and Budapest co-lead |
| Dronetag | 2022 | convertible | 0.6 | under 1m | Czech lead or co-lead | Y Soft Ventures | |
| Filuta AI | 2023 | pre-seed | 2.2 | 1 to 4m | Czech lead or co-lead | Nation 1 | |
| Filuta AI | 2025 | seed | 3.9 | 1 to 4m | Czech lead or co-lead | Rockaway Ventures | |
| Born Digital | 2021 | pre-seed | 0.6 | under 1m | Czech lead or co-lead | J&T Ventures | |
| Born Digital | 2023 | seed | 2.0 | 1 to 4m | Czech lead or co-lead | Seed Starter ČS | |
| Kardi AI | 2022 | pre-seed | 0.35 | under 1m | no lead named | DEPO, BrightCap | no lead named; DEPO is the owner's fund |
| Kardi AI | 2023 | unnamed | 1.5 | 1 to 4m | no lead named | BrightCap, DEPO, Purple, Soulmates | no lead named |
| Kardi AI | 2025 | unnamed | 1.1 | 1 to 4m | no lead named | BrightCap, DEPO, Garage Angels, Lumus | no lead named |
| Carebot | 2024 | unnamed | 1.2 | 1 to 4m | no lead named | angels, Pilulka Lab, Startguide, BHM, Gain | no lead named |
| Carebot | 2026 | unnamed | 1.5 | 1 to 4m | Czech lead or co-lead | Garage Angels, Electron Capital (Brno) | |
| Digitoo | 2020 | pre-seed | 0.2 | under 1m | Czech lead or co-lead | Machine Learning Investment | |
| Digitoo | 2021 | pre-seed | 0.94 | under 1m | Czech lead or co-lead | Kaya VC | |
| Digitoo | 2022 | unnamed | 1.1 | 1 to 4m | Czech lead or co-lead | Kaya, Nation 1 | |
| Digitoo | 2023 | unnamed | 2.3 | 1 to 4m | Czech lead or co-lead | Reflex Capital | |
| Investown | 2020 | seed | 0.2 | under 1m | Czech lead or co-lead | Seed Starter ČS, Lighthouse | amount 'several m CZK' |
| Investown | 2022 | unnamed | 1.2 | 1 to 4m | Czech lead or co-lead | Chytrý Honza (DRFG) | |
| Investown | 2023 | bridge | 2.5 | 1 to 4m | Czech lead or co-lead | Finbus | 'high tens of m CZK' |
| Vividbooks | 2020 | seed | 0.2 | under 1m | Czech lead or co-lead | angel (Jindřich Horák) | |
| Sharry | 2019 | seed | 1.2 | 1 to 4m | Czech lead or co-lead | Bohemia VC (Presto) | |
| Sharry | 2022 | unnamed | 1.5 | 1 to 4m | Czech lead or co-lead | J&T Ventures | 'tens of millions CZK' |
| Behavio | 2021 | unnamed | 1.2 | 1 to 4m | Czech lead or co-lead | Presto Ventures | 'tens of millions CZK' |
| Behavio | 2024 | late seed | 2.25 | 1 to 4m | led from abroad | Airbridge (Amsterdam) | |
| Cyrkl | 2020 | pre-seed | 0.2 | under 1m | Czech lead or co-lead | Tilia Impact Ventures | |
| Cyrkl | 2021 | seed | 1.2 | 1 to 4m | Czech lead or co-lead | Kahikatea | 'tens of millions CZK' |
| Roger | 2020 | strategic | 6.0 | 4 to 15m | Czech lead or co-lead | Komerční banka | 'lower hundreds of m CZK' |
| Lemonero | 2020 | unnamed | 1.2 | 1 to 4m | Czech lead or co-lead | Komerční banka | |
| Lemonero | 2022 | seed | 6.0 | 4 to 15m | Czech lead or co-lead | Komerční banka | equity and debt mixed, equity share unknown |
| Choice | 2021 | pre-seed | 0.2 | under 1m | no lead named | Reflex, J&T, Seedcamp | no lead named |
| Choice | 2022 | A (as named) | 1.5 | 1 to 4m | Czech lead or co-lead | Presto Ventures | |
| Choice | 2024 | unnamed | 2.3 | 1 to 4m | Czech lead or co-lead | J&T, Reflex, Presto | equal partners; InVenture names J&T lead |
| Choice | 2026 | unnamed | 6.5 | 4 to 15m | led from abroad | Alea (Lisbon), Smartlink (Warsaw) | |
| Better Stack | 2022 | A | 17.1 | 15 to 40m | led from abroad | Creandum (Stockholm) | corrected 30 Sep 2026: USD 18.6m x 0.92 (Gunder press release 21 Jul 2022, Creandum lead; tech.eu Jan 2024); earlier 15.6 |
| Vrgineers | 2023 | A | 5.5 | 4 to 15m | led from abroad | Taiwania (Taipei) | |
| Keboola | 2023 | A | 29.4 | 15 to 40m | led from abroad | Viking Global (Greenwich) | |
| EquiLibre | 2025 | A / growth | 9.2 | 4 to 15m | led from abroad | Blossom Capital (London) | |
| Supernova | 2025 | A | 8.5 | 4 to 15m | led from abroad | Taiwania (Taipei) | |
| FaceUp | 2026 | A | 4.6 | 4 to 15m | led from abroad | Fil Rouge (Zagreb) | |
| Oddin | 2022 | A | 4.1 | 4 to 15m | led from abroad | Velo, Genting | |
| Better Stack | 2024 | tranche | 9.2 | 4 to 15m | Czech lead or co-lead | Kaya VC | 'tranche led by Kaya' (TechCrunch); Czech-Slovak founders, Prague; found by the 12 Sep falsification search |
| ValkaAI | 2026 | pre-seed | 12.0 | 4 to 15m | Czech lead or co-lead | Rockaway Ventures | Prague; J&T, Tensor, BD Partners, Nase Cesko participated; found by the 12 Sep falsification search |
Method
Curated set of 41 Czech-founded companies with at least one primary equity round announced 2016 to 2026, built from press announcements (CzechCrunch, Forbes.cz, EU-Startups, Vestbee, tech.eu, TechCrunch and company releases), not the full population; a Dealroom population check is owed (Open items). Excluded: Kiwi.com (2019 General Atlantic deal mostly secondary), Boataround (Slovak-registered), Exaforce (San Jose HQ), Flowmon, Beey and Fundlift (no venture rounds), GoodData, Socialbakers and Apiary (rounds before 2016), Emplifi 2022 (post-acquisition), EIC grants, rescue rounds (Woltair 2025, Cyrkl 2023), convertible-loan conversions (ThreatMark 2020), secondaries (Liftago 2018 and 2019 partial). Sizes as announced; some include convertibles (Daytrip, Dronetag), debt (Lemonero), bridge (Investown) or buyouts (Liftago 2018: 100m CZK including buyouts, 84m primary). Better Stack 2022 Series A is corrected in this file to EUR 17.1m (USD 18.6m x 0.92) from the earlier 15.6m; the correction moves no headline number. Currency: EUR at 25 CZK and 0.92 per USD, fixed rates, no per-round dated rates. Lead as announced; "where it was named" means 7 rounds have no lead. The medians and trend use 42 Czech-led rounds with amount; the lead-origin split uses all 86 rounds with amount and a named lead.
Critical context
- Curated set, not the full population; selection favours companies that made press.
- Lead as announced; co-leads counted as Czech-led; if they are not, the split changes (see the no-Index-Credo row in the sensitivity table).
- Trend is definition dependent (+20.0 to +26.9 percent a year across four sets) and R squared is 0.25 to 0.37; it is a description of 42 points, not a forecast.
- Median rises from 1.0 to 2.4 on n 32 and n 10; the second group is small.
- Five of seven Czech-led rounds at 4m or more are banks, an operator, a debt fund or a co-lead; only Better Stack 2024 and ValkaAI 2026 are sole venture-fund leads in that band.
- Filuta AI (Rockaway, 2025, EUR 3.9m) sits on the 4m gridline in panel B and is counted below 4m; it is the largest sole-venture-lead round below 4m in the set, so its placement depends on the threshold.
- Panel C is five well-known survivors chosen by name.
- Forto is single-sourced; Source Defense headquarters not established; 12 smaller deals in the set have had only one check (tado, Cosmo Tech, Zolar, WINT, CyberX, Vytal, Ember, Hydrogrid, Gjirafa, Apaleo, Jutro, Quantagonia).
- Rounds mix EUR, USD and CZK announcements converted at fixed rates.
- LinkedIn strips file metadata on upload; the archive copies carry it.
What fell on the way
- 30 Sep 2026, before publication. Earlier working claim "no Czech venture fund ever led a round above 4 million" fell: Neuron Soundware 2019 (co-led by Inven Capital), and the bank, operator and debt-fund rounds. Replaced by "the first Czech venture fund to lead above 4 million alone" (in this set).
- 30 Sep 2026, before publication. Earlier working basis "34 of 36 venture fund leads abroad above 4 million" fell: the abroad side included non-venture leads (ING, Zip, Bain Capital Tech Opportunities, Viking Global, Riverside, Goldman). Replaced by 34 of 41 led rounds.
- 30 Sep 2026, before publication. Earlier working medians (0.85 and 2.3 / 0.9 and 2.3) were recomputed to 1.0 and 2.4 on the corrected set.
- 30 Sep 2026, before publication. Earlier working mechanism "funds that grew started leading at home" was removed: no supporting case among the named examples (Credo V, about EUR 72m, and Presto Tech Horizons, EUR 150m, led no home round above 4m in this set). The post now states dated facts only.
These are not corrections of a shipped post; the corrections log stays empty of these.
Falsifier
As stated by the author
If the Czech-led median, 2023 to 2027 pooled, falling back under 1,5 million by end of 2027, or no third Czech venture fund, besides Kaya and Rockaway, leading alone above 4 million into a Czech startup by then.
Definition used on this page: third venture fund = a venture fund other than Kaya or Rockaway, leading alone (no co-lead), a Czech-founded company, round of more than EUR 4m announced after 26 Feb 2026 and by 31 Dec 2027. Pooled median = all Czech-led and co-led rounds with amount, 2023 to 2027, same exclusions (hollow four) as here.
Weakness: 2023 to 2026 already holds 10 Czech-led rounds at median 2.4; about 10 new rounds of 0.5m or less would be needed to push the pooled median under 1.5m, and the set adds about 2 to 3 such rounds a year; so the median condition is practically unfalsifiable and the second condition carries the test.
Next read: [PASTE date; default 31 Dec 2027 or earlier on owner's call]. This is call 10 in the owner's calls ledger; link to /calls/ when that page exists.
Open items
- Dealroom population check: how many Czech-founded startups raised a round of EUR 4m or more in 2016 to 2026 per Dealroom, against the 26 companies in this set with a round of about 5m or more. Owed, not blocking.
- Per-round source links: the CSV has no source column. Until the owner supplies per-round URLs, the table carries the SINGLE-SOURCE label above. Do not invent URLs.
- Filuta AI EUR 3.9m (Rockaway, 2025) plots on the 4m line in panel B.
- ThreatMark 2023 instrument (equity or debt) not established; CB Insights paywalled.
- 12 smaller deals checked once (listed in Critical context).
- DEPO participation: four rounds in the table; earlier notes mention Tatum 2022; not in the CSV.
- Earlier post draft used "nineteen rounds, sixteen abroad" for Czech venture funds' leads; that list was never published and could not be reproduced; it is not on this page.
Related
- Evidence index
- The startup funnel (same author, Czech and Slovak pre-seed count)
- Cars per employee (same method)
Outcome
[PASTE impressions, reactions, comments at 72h]
Corrections log
Empty at publication. First real entry only if a correction follows posting. Better Stack 2022 amount corrected before publication (see Method), not logged here.
Sources
Read date for all items below: 30 Sep 2026 unless stated.
- Vestbee: Kaya Fund V first close, EUR 70m, 25 Jun 2025. Vestbee.
- Global Private Capital: Kaya IV, USD 80m, closed 31 Mar 2021. GPCA newsroom.
- tech.eu: Better Stack USD 10m, 22 Jan 2024 ("provided by existing backer KAYA"). tech.eu.
- EU-Startups: Better Stack EUR 9.2m, Jan 2024. EU-Startups.
- TechCrunch: Better Stack 2024 (lead wording). TechCrunch, 25 Jan 2024.
- tech.eu: Rockaway Ventures II, EUR 55m, closed 16 May 2025. tech.eu.
- Vestbee: ValkaAI EUR 12m, led by Rockaway Ventures, 24 Feb 2026. Vestbee.
- SiliconAngle, 26 Apr 2022: Source Defense USD 27m Series B, Springtide. SiliconAngle.
- cc.cz (CzechCrunch), 27 Apr 2022: Source Defense / Springtide. cc.cz.
- Unquote, 18 Nov 2020: Forto USD 50m, Inven. Unquote.
- thesaasnews, Sep 2022: Taranis USD 40m Series D, Inven (note only; URL not confirmed in this build).
- Vestbee: Kaya Fund V launched, target EUR 80m, Jun 2024 (launch date stated in the Vestbee Fund V first-close article above; dedicated launch URL not confirmed in this build).
- Per-round press sources: see Open item 2.